Financial and real estate appreciation in the RMB No.1
rapid growth trend and no change in the macroeconomic front, the value of the real estate industry will not change the long-term investment, real estate industry based on high growth and large integrated wheel drive, leading companies have supernormal growth. Xinhui
future implementation of accounting system standards, real estate shares, property shares and the value of commercial real estate stocks are opportunities for discovery and revaluation of assets. We believe that the accelerated appreciation of the renminbi as well as performance support and other factors make real estate shares be spread speculation, the new accounting standards will be implemented in early 2007, for the real estate business as well as parks and real estate leasing business will be to fair value pricing, and these companies is much higher than the cost price of the property market will greatly enhance and thickening of the class corporate profits.
2007, the banks continue to be a hot spot based on the following aspects: First, banks are more good overall performance of listed companies is an important representative of blue chips on the market. Second, with the introduction of stock index futures, heavyweight strategic focus will be institutional investors, Industrial and Commercial Bank (6.2,0.35,5.98%) (601398), Bank of China (5.43,0.49,9.92%) (601988) and other institutional investors can not be ignored in all the strategic investments. Third, the long-term appreciation of the renminbi is expected to make financial and stock funds is expected to become long-term strategic concern species. expected in recent years with strong macroeconomic growth trend of the RMB appreciation is still strong. Fourth, the reform of the financial industry, banks will Shares of the larger opportunities.
transport No.2
benefited from the airline industry there is room for downward adjustment of domestic fuel prices and continued appreciation of the renminbi two favorable factors, will maintain rapid growth; with the Civil Aviation the steady growth of industry and the will remain high, oil tanker market is relatively stable, the container market continued to decline; then, the industry will remain relatively stable development trend; basis; to maintain steady growth of highway industry, the current overall state of being underestimated in 2007 is expected to reverse.
based aviation industry No.3
history of Japan and China Taiwan and other countries and regional stock market experience in the context of the currency appreciation The following airlines are the main beneficiaries of the grounds from two aspects: First, the basic aircraft and aerospace materials, dependence on imports, while the company debt and its huge debt is denominated in dollars is the subject of long-term appreciation of the RMB will continue to import aircraft costs and declining external debt burden; the other hand, China's oil import dependence is growing stronger yuan would help decrease the cost of fuel .2006 third quarter Air China (5.15,0.47,10.04%) (601,111) and S China Southern (4.09,0.37,9.95%) (600,029) the volume of business data have shown a good growth trend, while load factor indicators also improved significantly; the third quarter, the two companies, the average load factor levels were 81% and 75% . As fuel surcharge policy to be implemented gradually in all airlines, from August 2006, domestic airline fares index and the comprehensive index began to compare fares on international routes significantly more than last year. We must point out that in addition fuel surcharge policy support the addition, as the world economic slowdown in 2007 and oil production increase is expected to continue to moderate down oil prices in 2007, the airline fuel costs are significantly reduced. Therefore, in operation indicators improved policy support, oil prices and the trend of RMB appreciation , airline operating costs and financial burden will continue to improve, it is expected that market in 2007 will exceed the industry index of stock performance.
Paper No.4
paper industry is the beneficiary of RMB appreciation, primarily is the lack of forestry resources, in particular, rely heavily on imports of wood pulp, the currency appreciation will reduce the performance of the company to increase raw material costs. China in 2005 total consumption of 52 million tons of pulp, imported 759 million tons, in particular, rely heavily on high-quality wood pulp foreign raw materials, 40% of the global waste trade imports into China. Although the intensity of the development of the larger straw and bamboo, but the lack of high-quality wood pulp is flawed, the long-term dependence on foreign raw materials in China is inevitable. international timber prices in 2004 point in the index fell from 450 to around 250 current and thus a corresponding fall in the price of wood pulp paper companies to promote business growth, the current price of coniferous pulp is 6400 yuan / ton, hardwood pulp price of 5,400 yuan / ton, low- in the August high of 6,900 yuan / ton and 5,800 yuan / ton Paper .2006 9 months ago cumulative revenue growth of 24.1%, the accumulated total profit increase of 36.2%, we determine profitability in the fourth quarter of 2006 improved. < br> non-ferrous metals No.5
a century after the global non-ferrous metal resources, a large-scale mining, the scarcity of resources has become increasingly evident, the long-term trends in metal prices on the major non-ferrous metal prices upward .2007 will continue to maintain high, continuous less likely to crash, but the division will occur among the varieties, nickel, zinc, lead and will continue to challenge the 2006 high point, copper, aluminum, tin fell slightly different degrees, tungsten prices remain high run.
as non-ferrous metals sector has been rising sharply in 2006, and if global economic growth less than expected, a reversal of non-ferrous metals supply and demand may cause prices to decline, therefore, currently there are some differences to the plate. But we insist that the current round of bull cycle will far exceed everyone's expectations, lead, zinc, nickel and other metals of very low inventory and supply in 2007 is still the gap indicates that prices will continue to rise. Although copper and other metal short individual stocks rise, the future supply situation is expected to slow down, but at a low level of inventory of the accident under any supply side will make the price rebound. Based on the above analysis, we believe that colored plate in the first half of 2007 remains a good investment opportunity.
mechanical No.6
At the national emphasis on independent innovation and sustainable development, policy guidance, the machinery industry, the future tends to be more under the *** industry through restructuring to achieve greater development, corresponding to the equipment manufacturing industry, higher requirements. comprehensive assessment of the needs of iron ore and steel prices, we believe that the whole of 2007 would stabilize steel prices, which will benefit the development of the downstream machinery industry. With the advance of macro-control, fixed asset investment is expected in 2007 growth will slow to about 20%, the field of machinery industry will gradually fall back to vigorous thermal fields and sub-division development of the industry trends will occur. based on market growth potential and originality of the assessment of integrated technology development, we expect 2007 construction machinery, textile machinery, agricultural machinery and three sub-sectors will show steady growth, machine tools, heavy machinery, instruments and other three sub-sectors will remain relatively high growth; aviation equipment, shipbuilding, rail transport equipment and other three sub-sectors will show rapid growth, and environmental protection equipment manufacturing industry in the and increase the income of farmers, agriculture will be the biggest beneficiaries. Agriculture is the core of the middle reaches of the cultivation and breeding, is the upward support and services for the core sub-sectors, including species (shoot) plant industry, chemical fertilizer and pesticides, feed, veterinary drugs and vaccines, extending down to sub-sectors is the agricultural product processing. subject to the restrictions of domestic agricultural resources, planting and breeding industry is the price of investment opportunities in highly volatile, especially in agricultural products in regions of the leading enterprises; investment opportunities in the feed industry is that industry consolidation; seed industry to benefit from rising prices of agricultural products; the vaccine industry to benefit from the epidemic-prone; and the construction of rural market and improve the circulation system, will produce wholesale markets and agricultural supermarket chains to bring it Great opportunities for development.
Communication No.8
investment prospects as the 3G gradually become clear that China Telecom fixed-asset investment in 2007 will usher in a new peak, the overall boom of the communications industry will also be subsequently entered an accelerated phase of ascension. communications industry investment in 2007 will focus on 3G repeated digging and deepening of the communications equipment sub-sector will be the first 3G value chain and the largest beneficiaries. from the long-term trend: As the 3G value chain formation and extension of the competition rules of the game will change, companies will gradually allow the individual competition, value chain collaboration in the competition, but this evolution will require a long process. short term, with the following characteristics The companies will grow faster: (1) market growth with exogenous and explosive; (2) the market share leader in its core business, profitability and secure; (3) has a strong anti-cycle, the ability of anti-competitive ; (4) high-level strategic thinking clearly.
2007 年 communications industry, the risk factors faced by the 3G license issuance time to focus on uncertainty, government support for TD technology uncertainty, the national macro-control of uncertain telecommunications investment in fixed assets so at the policy level. We recommend that 3G should be in-depth assessment of the communications industry, brought about by the exogenous growth opportunities, particularly focused on China's own intellectual property rights of the Evolution of TD industrial chain and the market prospects, search for the global communications industry has grown Big potential for domestic listed companies, strategic long-term holding.
car No.9
2006 since the automotive industry sales, revenue and profit targets tend to change with the change of the pre-sales growth, efficiency decline of the unfavorable situation , in which cars are the main driving force stimulating growth of the industry. In the background of the price system to stabilize, the market demand to maintain a rapid growth, industry sales income will increase to keep pace with the growth of the automotive industry in 2007 revenue and profit keep pace with growth, an increase of about 20%, in particular the growth of car industry to look forward to more investment opportunities .2007 auto stocks are: market demand driven growth performance, car share opportunities than commercial vehicles; with the leading core competencies The company will achieve faster development; automotive industry trend is clearly an international transfer, the Chinese auto industry faces some development opportunities; assets into the overall market to the relevant company a chance to leapfrog development.
new Japanese steel No.10
80 Day 4 iron on the 20th century, up 7 times brilliant, so we can see the bright future of the domestic steel industry. Asia steel shares rose but also inspired the enthusiasm of domestic investors. inflection point performance of the steel industry there, and this results growth, because of the emergence of new variables: the growth of foreign steel exports can be sustained. RMB appreciation, foreign investment growth, domestic steel companies to improve the competitiveness of Chinese steel enterprises for new impetus to the growth.
tons of China as the world the least profitable areas of steel, and its earnings growth prospects worth the wait. the current domestic steel prices lower than international market price of more than 100 U.S. dollars / ton, prices rose 100 yuan, it will make 40% profit growth the industry. Leading the nation's largest steel companies, Baosteel (8.66,0.50,6.13%) (600019) 50% of the performance of three quarterly growth, as well as major iron and steel enterprises bright quarterly and annual reports, will strengthen investor confidence. Steel profit growth will continue to enhance the value of steel company.
China Steel merger reorganization will invest the next few years the main line, the overall market is only a prelude to China's steel industry restructuring, mergers and acquisitions across the enterprise integration will improve the company's intrinsic value. current valuation of the domestic steel stocks only 6 to 8 times the book value is only 1 times, some companies even under 1 times. If the valuation of the domestic steel stocks reach the international average, prices of many companies will achieve double the industry average at least 50% upside. If you take into account the growth of the Chinese steel industry, valuation of Chinese steel stocks rose more space.
SW recommendations: First, concern that the financial sector to determine
SW Securities Research Institute, following the flow of profits, the market will turn attention to the hot investment goods, manufacturing, financial industry, equipment industry and consumer services.
release content from Beijing Gao Hua Securities Company Limited, CITIC Securities (27.38,1.33,5.11%) Institute, Shenyin Securities Research Institute, Hai Tong Securities Research Institute, TX Investment Advisory Co., Ltd., R & D Center of China Merchants Securities, Huatai Securities Research Institute, Ping An Securities Research Institute, Central China Securities Research Institute and United Securities Research Institute provides intellectual support.
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